Friday, February 11, 2011

3G rollouts could change dynamics

INDIAN TELECOM: MNP initial data suggests it is not a game-changer; 3G rollouts could change dynamics

Only 1.7m subscribers (0.23% of wireless subscriber base) requested for porting during the first fifteen days of MNP implementation.

Assuming post-paid ARPU is 5x pre-paid, 0.23% subscriber churn can result in no more than 0.5% revenue churn.

TRAI has clarified that certain port-in requests are being rejected due to non-fulfillment of required conditions or errors made by subscribers.

We continue to believe that MNP is unlikely to be a game-changer given largely pre-paid nature of Indian market (>96%) and high blended churn levels (48-120%)

3G rollout can impact MNP dynamics as 1) operator focus is higher on 3G rollout, 2) high-end subscribers could be awaiting rollouts before deciding to port.

On a circle wise basis Haryana circle has seen cumulative porting of 1.2% in more than two months. Number portability was test launched in Haryana effective 25th November 2010. Gujarat and Rajasthan recorded the highest no. of porting requests (~0.4% of customer base) in the northern and western regions. We believe that MNP induced churn is insignificant given the already high churn levels in the Indian market.source

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